v2.0 · May 2026
Economic Impact Report
Retail+ V2.0
A finance-ready model, in full. Every assumption, mechanism, sensitivity test and citation behind the v2 figures.
01
v2 changes and errata
v2 (May 2026) reflects a methodology review of v1 (Jan 2026). Five corrections; the model is otherwise unchanged. v1 remains available for traceability.
| Change | Type | Detail |
| 01 |
Arithmetic — 10-year cumulative + NPV corrected |
v1 deducted the subscription twice at the 10-year line. v2 applies the 9.0× adoption multiplier directly to Net annual value. Moderate 10-year: A$902,595 → A$906,795. |
| 02 |
Framing — payback rewritten against actual cost |
v1's 8.3 commentary framed payback against a hypothetical A$30k per store cost while the numbers used A$4,200. v2 is consistent throughout. Moderate payback typo (0.05 → 0.50 months) corrected. |
| 03 |
Sourcing — ECR citation tightened to verifiable |
v1 cited "ECR Blue Book on OOS". 250+ Blue Books exist. v2 cites Optimal Shelf Availability: Increasing Shopper Satisfaction at the Moment of Truth (ECR Europe & Roland Berger, 2003) directly. |
| 04 |
Scoping — supplier CM moved out of headline |
The A$5k / A$15k / A$40k supplier contribution figures are modelled placeholders without a cited source. v2 publishes two ranges: a core range (excluding supplier CM) for external claims, plus a "with supplier CM" range for planning conversations. |
| 05 |
NPV disclosure — 10% noted as better AU grocery WACC |
v1 used 8%. v2 retains 8% for continuity but notes 10% is more appropriate for AU independent grocery WACC. Six academic citations verified. |
View the v1.0 archive →
02
Executive summary
Retail+ concentrates value in five retailer levers:
- Sales recapture / uplift
- Gross-margin basis-point gains
- Hours returned (capacity unlocked)
- Execution & compliance risk avoidance
- Optional supplier contribution margin via data access / monetisation
Using an assumed A$30m revenue per store, the model estimates annual per-store value:
- Core range (lever 5 excluded — external claim figure): ~A$27.5k Conservative, ~A$85.8k Moderate, ~A$181.4k Aggressive — net of A$4,200 subscription.
- Full range (lever 5 included — internal planning figure): ~A$32.5k Conservative, ~A$100.7k Moderate, ~A$221.4k Aggressive.
The core range is the figure to use in external claims. The full range is appropriate for internal planning conversations where supplier data monetisation is on the table.
Retail+ matters because it compresses the loop from "spot" → "diagnose" → "act" → "confirm" using live analytics plus execution tooling (tasks & lists), with Hank enabling analyst-like Q&A against live performance patterns.
Scenario range, per store, annual · core (excl. supplier CM)
~A$28k to ~A$181k
Dominated by margin bps and execution-driven sales recapture. Add A$5k–A$40k for optional supplier-paid data access.
04
Methodology overview
Feature → benefit → economics mapping
- Start with verifiable features from the Retail+ product surface.
- Convert each into an operational benefit with a measurable proxy.
- Convert each benefit into a P&L mechanism:
Scenario modelling
Three scenarios (Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive) representing differences in data readiness, adoption cadence, execution discipline, and (optionally) supplier participation.
Conservative bias
- Overlap haircut: 15% reduction on combined sales-uplift + margin-gain GP to reduce double-counting.
- Hours captured: hours returned are partially captured - not all time becomes cash.
- Validation plan: outcome claims validated via store pilot using matched controls and difference-in-differences.
05
Role context - operational realities
Across retailers, the recurring constraints are remarkably consistent.
01
Decision latency cost
When insight arrives weekly or monthly, issues have already leaked sales and margin. Retail+ shortens that latency to hours.
02
Execution gap
Good decisions don't pay if store execution is inconsistent. Tasks + Lists explicitly target "nothing slips through the cracks".
03
Margin pressure
Small basis-point improvements applied to a large sales base become material profit. Margin bps is the dominant sensitivity.
04
Labour constraints
The opportunity is usually capacity unlock - better prioritisation, faster "truth checks", less ad-hoc reporting. Not headcount reduction.
05
Supplier relationships
Retailers want clearer, data-backed joint business planning - and optionally to convert reporting burden into governed supplier-paid access.
06
Feature → benefit → economic mechanism
5.1 Feature summary
Retail+ includes - at the time of writing:
Mobile, tablet & desktop
Search & scan
Home
Real-time analytics
Tasks
Lists
Spaces (Pro)
Basket analytics
Data trading
Hank (Pro)
Workflow recommendations
Trend analysis
Data marketplace
Task collaboration (soon)
Conversations (soon)
5.2 Benefits extracted
| Feature |
Operational benefit |
Measurement type |
| Real-time analytics | Faster detection of drift; earlier correction of leakage; one version of truth. | Time-to-insight; variance recovery rate |
| Search & scan | Truth in seconds, in aisle and in supplier meetings. Less analyst dependency. | Time per query; reporting hours avoided |
| Home screen | Prioritisation and exception management - top / bottom / tasks / metrics. | Daily review time; actions / insight |
| Tasks | Converts insight to accountable execution. Audit trail. Reduces slippage. | Completion %; time-to-close |
| Lists | Standardises workflows: delists, promos, stocktakes, gap checks. | Promo readiness; rework rate |
| Basket analytics | Improves "profit per trip" - attach, bundles, promo profitability. | Basket value / margin / profit |
| Spaces (Pro) | Improves sales / GP density by reallocating space to higher-return bays. | GP per sqm; endcap ROI |
| Data trading | Optional, governed supplier-paid access. New high-margin contribution line. | Supplier uptake; contribution margin |
| Hank (bounded Q&A) | Reduces friction to answer core trading questions. Increases decision cadence. | Query cycle time; actions / answer |
Hank scope constraint. This model assumes Hank reliably answers questions in the analyst-retrieval space - department declines, product margin queries, growth categories, top/bottom SKUs, rolling totals - not "open-ended magic". This aligns with the current Hank release.
5.3 Economic mechanisms
| Benefit cluster | Primary lever | How value shows up |
| Faster exception detection | Sales uplift, margin gain, hours returned | Reduce time-to-correct leaks; expand review cadence; improve mix / promo decisions sooner. |
| Execution reliability | Sales protection, risk avoidance, hours returned | Fewer missed promos, ticketing errors, delayed fixes; less rework. |
| Basket-quality optimisation | Sales uplift, margin gain | Improve attach & bundles. Avoid "discount-only" promos. Lift GP per trip. |
| Space optimisation | Sales uplift, margin gain | Allocate space to higher-return bays / endcaps. Improve profit density. |
| Supplier monetisation | Supplier contribution margin | Sell governed insight access. Convert reporting burden into subscription-like contribution. |
07
Financial & operational assumptions
6.1 Baseline assumptions
| Variable | Value | Confidence |
| Revenue per store | A$30,000,000 / year | High |
| Retail+ subscription | A$350 / store / month (A$4,200 / year) | High |
| Baseline GM% | 27% (sensitivity 25–30%) — Coles FY25 27.4%, Woolworths Aus Food 28.6%; midpoint | Medium |
| Labour cost / hr (fully loaded) | A$35 / hr (sensitivity A$32–A$40) — Award + 12% super (ATO from 1 Jul 2025) + on-costs | Medium |
| Overlap haircut | 15% of (GP sales uplift + GP margin gain) — portfolio-level tier per workflow EIR methodology | Medium |
| Discount rate (NPV) | 8% placeholder — v2 note: 10% is more appropriate for Australian independent grocery WACC. Replace with your actual WACC. | Medium |
| Adoption ramp (10 yrs) | Y1 40%, Y2 70%, Y3 90%, Y4–10 100% (sum multiplier 9.0×) | Med–Low |
| Supplier CM (lever 5) | A$5k / A$15k / A$40k per store — modelled placeholder, no cited evidence base. v2 treats as optional upside, not headline. | Low |
6.2 Scenario input ranges
| Driver |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Aggressive |
| Sales uplift (% of revenue) | 0.20% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
| Margin gain (bps on total sales) | +5 bps | +15 bps | +30 bps |
| Hours saved weekly | 4 hrs | 8 hrs | 12 hrs |
| Hours capture factor | 30% | 50% | 70% |
| Compliance / risk avoided (EV) | A$3k/yr | A$10k/yr | A$25k/yr |
| Supplier contribution margin (optional) | A$5k/yr | A$15k/yr | A$40k/yr |
08
Economic impact modelling
7.1 Impact areas
We quantify five impact areas (annual, per store):
- Sales uplift → incremental GP from incremental sales
- Margin gain → incremental GP from basis-point improvement
- Hours returned → monetised at labour cost × capture%
- Compliance / risk avoided → expected-value reduction
- Supplier contribution margin → optional, from governed access
7.2 Per-store annual impact
R = A$30,000,000; GM = 27%; labour = A$35/hr; overlap haircut = 15%. v2 publishes core and full ranges.
| Impact area |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Aggressive |
| Incremental sales (revenue) | 60,000 | 150,000 | 300,000 |
| GP from sales uplift | 16,200 | 40,500 | 81,000 |
| GP from margin gain | 15,000 | 45,000 | 90,000 |
| Less: overlap haircut (15%) | (4,680) | (12,825) | (25,650) |
| Captured hours returned value | 2,184 | 7,280 | 15,288 |
| Compliance / risk avoided (EV) | 3,000 | 10,000 | 25,000 |
| Subtotal — core gross value (excl. supplier CM) | 31,704 | 89,955 | 185,638 |
| Less: Retail+ subscription (A$4,200/yr) | (4,200) | (4,200) | (4,200) |
| Net annual value / store (core) — external claim figure | 27,504 | 85,755 | 181,438 |
| Optional: supplier contribution margin (lever 5) | 5,000 | 15,000 | 40,000 |
| Net annual value / store (with supplier CM) | 32,504 | 100,755 | 221,438 |
Interpretation. Even the Moderate core case is only ~0.29% of annual sales in profit-equivalent value — consistent with Retail+ primarily reducing leakage and improving decision cadence, not creating a one-off transformation event. Most value comes from margin bps + recaptured sales, with hours returned and (optional) supplier CM as secondary.
7.3 Sensitivity - value per unit change
Using R = 30m, GM = 27%, overlap haircut k = 15%.
Key takeaway: the model is most sensitive to margin basis points, then sales uplift, then supplier CM, then hours returned.
7.4 Moderate-scenario sensitivity (one-at-a-time)
Base Moderate Net (with supplier CM) = A$100,755 / store / year. The supplier CM row is the swing between full and core.
| Change | New Net total | Delta |
| Margin gain 15 bps → 20 bps | 113,505 | +12,750 |
| Sales uplift 0.50% → 0.60% | 107,640 | +6,885 |
| Hours saved 8 → 10 hrs/wk | 102,575 | +1,820 |
| Hours saved 8 → 6 hrs/wk | 98,935 | −1,820 |
| Capture 50% → 30% | 97,843 | −2,912 |
| Overlap haircut 15% → 20% | 96,480 | −4,275 |
| Sales uplift 0.50% → 0.40% | 93,870 | −6,885 |
| Risk avoided 10k → 0 | 90,755 | −10,000 |
| Margin gain 15 bps → 10 bps | 88,005 | −12,750 |
| Supplier CM 15k → 0 (= core range) | 85,755 | −15,000 |
7.5 GM% sensitivity
At Moderate sales uplift = 0.50%: at GM = 25%, GP from sales uplift = A$37,500 (vs A$40,500 at 27%). Modest impact relative to margin bps sensitivity.
09
Multi-store & long-term value
8.1 Annual impact at scale
Net of Retail+ subscription, with supplier CM included. For core figures (excl. supplier CM), multiply per-store by Conservative A$27,504 / Moderate A$85,755 / Aggressive A$181,438.
| Stores | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
| 1 | A$32,504 | A$100,755 | A$221,438 |
| 5 | A$162,520 | A$503,775 | A$1.11m |
| 10 | A$325,040 | A$1.01m | A$2.21m |
| 20 | A$650,080 | A$2.02m | A$4.43m |
| 100 | A$3.25m | A$10.08m | A$22.14m |
| 1,000 | A$32.50m | A$100.76m | A$221.44m |
8.2 10-year cumulative impact
Adoption ramp: Y1 40%, Y2 70%, Y3 90%, Y4–10 100% (sum factor 9.0×). v2 correction: the subscription is netted year-by-year inside Net annual value, so the 9.0× multiplier scales Net directly. v1 deducted the subscription a second time at the 10-yr line; v2 figures below are slightly higher as a result.
Conservative
A$292.5k
10-yr undiscounted · per store · with supplier CM
Moderate
A$906.8k
10-yr undiscounted · per store · with supplier CM
Aggressive
A$1.99m
10-yr undiscounted · per store · with supplier CM
At 100 stores (NPV @ 8%, illustrative): Conservative A$18.91m · Moderate A$58.62m · Aggressive A$128.83m. NPV note: 8% is the placeholder retained from v1; 10% is more appropriate for Australian independent grocery WACC — using 10% reduces NPV by ~10% versus the figures above.
8.3 Payback & ROI profile
Retail+ subscription cost is A$350 per store per month (A$4,200 per year per store). All figures in this section use that A$4,200 cost — v2 corrects the v1 commentary, which mixed a hypothetical A$30k/store cost into its narrative.
| Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
| Annual benefit / store (core, excl. supplier CM) | A$27.5k | A$85.8k | A$181.4k |
| Annual benefit / store (with supplier CM) | A$32.5k | A$100.7k | A$221.4k |
| Payback period (with supplier CM) | ~1.6 months | ~0.5 months (v1 typo: 0.05) | ~0.2 months |
| Payback period (core) | ~1.8 months | ~0.6 months | ~0.3 months |
| Benefit-to-cost multiple (with supplier CM) | ~8.7× | ~25.0× | ~53.7× |
| Benefit-to-cost multiple (core) | ~7.5× | ~21.4× | ~44.2× |
10
Dependencies, risks & conditions
Preconditions to realise value
- Data readiness. Clean POS ingestion. Stable product hierarchy. Supplier mapping. Consistent promo identifiers.
- Operating cadence. Weekly exceptions review + monthly commercial review using the same views. Decisions must be routinised.
- Execution loop. Tasks & lists must be used and closed with evidence - not just created.
- Governance for supplier access. Permissions, aggregation rules, contracts, audit trails - before activation.
Risks & mitigations
Double-counting
Sales uplift and margin gain can overlap (mix, availability, promo effects).
Mitigation - overlap haircut + benefits ledger + pilot attribution.
Adoption
Dashboards without behaviour change yield little.
Mitigation - embed into rituals; make "Home → drilldown → task → closure" the operating rhythm.
Labour capture
Hours returned may not convert directly to cash.
Mitigation - track capacity unlocked separately from cash released; redeploy to higher-value work.
Supplier monetisation
Commercial upside depends on supplier appetite and governance.
Mitigation - treat supplier CM as optional; stage-gate with legal / privacy and clear packaging.
Feature delivery
Some features are explicitly marked "coming soon".
Mitigation - base ROI on the surface available today; treat the rest as upside.
11
Citations & evidence library
Benchmarks are used as plausibility bounds — headroom and mechanism support — not as guarantees. All six academic citations were verified in May 2026 as part of the v2 methodology review.
2011
Strength in Numbers: How Does Data-Driven Decision-Making Affect Firm Performance?
Brynjolfsson, Hitt & Kim · ICIS 2011 Proceedings / SSRN · n=179 large publicly-traded firms (US)
Firms adopting data-driven decision-making show 5–6% higher productivity and output. Supports the directional case that data-driven retailers outperform.
2003
Optimal Shelf Availability: Increasing Shopper Satisfaction at the Moment of Truth
ECR Europe & Roland Berger · European retail observational base
The foundational European OSA study. Reports OOS rates of 7–10% across European retail and establishes the five-lever framework for OSA improvement (replenishment, merchandising, inventory accuracy, promotion management, ordering systems). v2 correction: v1 cited "ECR Blue Book on OOS, 2003" — ECR has published 250+ Blue Books; v2 cites the specific report by name.
2003
Desperately Seeking Shelf Availability
Corsten & Gruen · International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 31(11/12), 605–617 · synthesis of 50+ prior studies
Global average OOS rate 8.3%; European average 8.6%. Some OOS converts to truly lost sales — supports conservative recapture assumptions.
2008
Inventory Record Inaccuracy: An Empirical Analysis
DeHoratius & Raman · Management Science 54(4), 627–641 · ~370,000 inventory records, 37 stores, one retailer
65% of inventory records are inaccurate. Justifies tooling that closes the execution loop — tasks, lists, photo-proof close-out.
2001
Execution: The Missing Link in Retail Operations
Raman, DeHoratius & Ton · California Management Review, 43(3), 136–154
Execution failures are common and profit-damaging. Supports the case that decision tools alone are insufficient — the loop must close.
1994
Shelf Management and Space Elasticity
Drèze, Hoch & Purk · Journal of Retailing, 70(4), 301–326 · field experiments
Shelf customisation produced 4% gains; product reorganisation produced 5–6% changes. Supports the Spaces (Pro) mechanism.
2014
Shelf Space Elasticity: A Meta-Analysis
Eisend · Journal of Retailing, 90(2), 168–181 · meta-analysis of 1,268 shelf-space elasticity estimates
Average shelf-space elasticity = 0.17. Quantifies the space-to-sales response that underpins Spaces Pro.
FY25
AU grocery GM% context
Coles FY25 (27.4%) · Woolworths Australian Food FY25 (28.6%) · public annual reports
Calibrates GM% for scaling uplift to GP$. Midpoint 27% applied as baseline.
2025
AU wages & on-costs
Fair Work General Retail Industry Award (MA000004) · ATO Superannuation Guarantee 12% (from 1 July 2025)
Informs the A$35/hr fully-loaded labour rate.
v2 note
Data monetisation / retail media margin proxies
Industry margin proxies referenced in role reports
The specific A$5k / A$15k / A$40k quantums used in the supplier CM line are modelled placeholders, not from a cited source. v2 publishes supplier CM as optional upside rather than part of the core headline for this reason.
12
Appendices
Appendix A · Raw formula spec
Appendix B · Feature mapping matrix
| Feature | Sales uplift | Margin gain | Hours returned | Risk avoided | Supplier CM |
| Real-time analytics | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | indirect |
| Search & scan | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | indirect |
| Home screen | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | - |
| Tasks | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | - |
| Lists | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | - |
| Basket analytics | ✓ | ✓ | - | - | - |
| Spaces (Pro) | ✓ | ✓ | - | - | - |
| Data trading | - | - | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Hank (bounded Q&A) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | - |
Appendix C · Role-model cross-check
The role reports produce the following per-store annual ranges. This consolidated model sits within the envelope and uses an explicit overlap haircut + hours-capture factor for conservatism.
| Role report |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Aggressive |
| CEO / Owner | 24,820 | 59,050 | 119,100 |
| CFO | 40,780 | 109,685 | 227,090 |
| COO | 27,830 | 92,950 | 201,820 |
| Buying Manager | 39,440 | 117,500 | 242,400 |
| Category Manager | 58,600 | 169,340 | 342,040 |
| This consolidated retailer model (Net, with supplier CM) | 32,504 | 100,755 | 221,438 |
| This consolidated retailer model (Net, core only) | 27,504 | 85,755 | 181,438 |